Aerobic Capacity Lab Report Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Aerobic Capacity Lab Report - Essay Example acity is most commonly expressed relative to the body weight to account the difference in body size and to reflect a person’s ability to carry out weight bearing tasks. Aerobic capacity is an important component of physical fitness because it reflects the overall capacity of the cardiovascular and respiratory systems1 and the ability to carry out prolonged strenuous exercise2.From a health perspective, good cardio respiratory fitness has been shown to reduce the risk (in adults) of hypertension, coronary heart disease, obesity, diabetes, some form of cancer, and other health problems3. There is a genetic component to aerobic capacity. Some people inherent characteristics that give them a naturally high level of aerobic capacity than other people. However, the genetic component in relatively small, accounting for less than 30% of the difference between people4. Thus aerobic capacity mostly reflects the level of habitual physical activity. In particular, aerobic capacity reflects the vigorous, sustained (aerobic) physical activity in which an individual engages. Aerobic capacity of the youth can be improved with sustained periods of high intensity exercise5. Although the exact dose of exercise needed has not been identified, three or more sessions per week in which moderately high-intensity exercise is sustained for 30 min or more are probably required. Any dynamic exercise involving large muscle groups is suitable, such as rigorous walking, jogging / running, cycling, swimming, and vigorous games. Improvements are proportioned to the amount of moderately high intensity exercise completed per week. Three students serve as subjects. They included 2 male and 1 female. They took a treadmill test for a specified duration. Subjects were run to exhaustion and then cool down while walking on the treadmill. The gases analyzed were oxygen (O2) and Carbon dioxide (CO2). To calculate the rate of O2 utilization (VO2), in addition to the fractional concentration of the

Systems Development Life Cycle

Systems Development Life Cycle Introduction SDLC, The systems development life cycle (SDLC) is a conceptual model used in project management that describes the stages involved in an information system development project, from an initial feasibility study through maintenance of the completed application. Hence an array of system development life cycle (SDLC) models has been created: Fountain, Spiral, rapid prototyping, synchronize and stabilize and Incremental. Although in the academic sense, SDLC can be used to refer to various processes followed during the development of software, SDLC is typically used to refer to the oldest of the traditional models a waterfall methodology. Software Engineering Process The SDLC supports a list of important phases that are essential for developers, such as planning, analysis, design, and implementation, and are explained more in detail later in this report. Traditionally the waterfall model was regarded as the original: which adhered to a sequence of stages in which the output of each stage became the input for the next. No definitive models exist, but the steps can be describe and divided as follows: Project planning, feasibility study, Initiation: A feasibility study is a quick examination of the problems, goals and expected cost of the system. Projects are usually evaluated in three areas of feasibility: economical, operational, and technical. In addition, it is also used as a guide to keep the project on track and to evaluate the progress of project (Post Anderson, 2006). Thus the goal of the feasibility studies is to evaluate alternative systems solutions and to propose the most feasible and desirable business application for development, (Obrien Marakas, 2006) states that the feasibility of a proposed business system can be evaluated in four major categories Organizational Feasibility: An illustration of how a business supports the strategic business priorities of the organization. Economic feasibility: Identifies whether expected cost savings, increase revenue, increase profits and reductions in required investments will exceed the cost of developing and operating a proposed system. Technical feasibility: can be demonstrated if reliable hardware and software capable of meeting the needs of a proposed systems can be acquired or developed by the business in the required time. Operational feasibility: can be measured by the ability and willingness of management, employees, customers, suppliers and others to operate, use, and support a proposed system. for example if Tescos was to change its software platform at the tills to something entirely different, employees may begin to make to many errors and find ways around using it or just all together quite, thus it will fail to show operational feasibility. Requirements gathering and Systems Analysis: (Hawrzyszkiewycz 2004) This step defines the proposed business solutions and any new or changed businesses processes. The goal at this stage is to find any problems and attempt to fix the system or improve its productivity and efficiency. The technique here is to break the system into smaller pieces as it is easier to be explained to others and can be split up amongst different development team. A draw back of this though is that it takes time and effort to reintegrate all of the pieces (Post Anderson, 2006). Systems design: Functions and operations are described in detail during the design stage, including screen layouts, business rules, process diagrams and other documentation. The output of this stage will be to describe the new system as a collection of modules or subsystems. (Hawrzyszkiewycx 2004) states that system designs is a two step process, Broad design: which indentifies the main architecture of the proposed system which may include the language use to develop the databases, network configurations, software requirements and whether programs are to be developed using internal programmers or external contractors. Detailed design: only after the design phase is completed the detailed design phase can be initiated, during this phase the database and program modules are design and detailed user and system interaction procedures and protocols are documented. Build: Software developers may install (or modify and then install) purchased software or they may write new or custom design programs (Senn 1989). Just like the design phase, this phase is broken up into two separate sub phases, development and implementation. During the implementation phase the components built during the development are put into operational use. Usually this means that the new and old systems run parallel until users are trained in system operations and existing processes converted to the new system. (Hawrzyszkiewycz 2004) Testing: During the integration and test stage, the software artefacts, online help, and test data are migrated from the development environment to a separate test environment. At this point, all test cases are run to verify the correctness and completeness of the software. Successful execution of the test suite confirms a robust and complete migration capability. In addition, reference data is finalized for production use and production users are identified and linked to their appropriate roles. The final reference data (or links to reference data source files) and production user list are compiled into the Production Initiation Plan and the system is used experimentally to ensure that the software does not fail, also the code is tested iteratively at each level (Senn 1989). Installation, Implementation and Deployment: Implementation is a vital step in the deployment of information technology to support employees, customers, and other business stakeholders, the system implementation stage involves hardware and software acquisition, software development, testing of programs and procedures, conversion of data resources and additionally involves the educating and training of end users and specialist who will operate the new system. All together this is the final stage where the project is finally used by the business (Obrien Marakas, 2006). Maintenance: Once a system is fully implemented and is being used in business operation, the maintenance function begins; this involves the life of the system which may include changes and enhancements before its decommissioning. (Obrien Marakas, 2006) states that the maintenance activity includes a post implementation review process to ensure that newly implemented systems meet the business objectives establish for them. (Hawrzyszkiewycx (2004) supports the argument that maintenance is required to eliminate errors in the system during its working life and to improve the system in the light of changes by monitoring, evaluating and modifying operational business systems to make desirable or necessary improvements. Evaluation and Reason for Adopting SDLC for a small Pc Application The adoption of the SDLC for the development of a small application on a pc will not be appropriate because the SDLC is just what is says it is the Life Cycle of the system software. The SDLC is a process use to manage time and resources on a project, from the identification of a need for the system Initiation) to rolling it out to the user (Implementation) to de-supporting or no longer needing it (Disposition), Each phase of the SDLC requires documentation, reporting, and approval. This assures that a project cannot get out of hand either by changing the direction or becoming a financial black hole and the project sponsors are aware at every step of exactly what is going on as it is documented. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that the development of a small application on a pc does not require the adoption of the SDLC model whereas a large systems which have teams of architects, analysts, programmers, testers and users must work together to create the millions of lines of cust om-written code that drive enterprises today, will without a doubt need to adopt an SDLC solution to manage the resources of such a project. Evaluation Of the Traditional SDLC Strengths Limitations The Waterfall Model The waterfall model is the most classical sequential life cycle; each phase must be completed in its entirety before the next phase can begin. (Post Anderson, 2006) states that one advantage of the SDLC is the formality aspect which makes it easier to train employees and to evaluate the progress of the development as well as ensuring that steps are not skip, such as user approval, documentation and testing. In addition with eighty percent of MIS resources spent of maintenance, adhering to standards whilst building the system makes it easier to modify and maintain in the future because of the documentation generated and the sustain consistency, however the formality of the SDLC approach can be problematic as it increases the cost of development and lengthens the development time (Post Anderson, 2006) The formality of the SDLC method also causes problems with projects that are hard to defined, unlike newer methods like Agile which helps software development teams to respond to the unpredictability of building software through incremental, iterative work cadences, known as sprints (Cohn, Mike 2006). Agile Methods aim at allowing organizations to deliver quickly, change quickly and change often. While, agile techniques vary in practice and emphasis, they share common characteristics, including iterative development and a focus on inter-action and communication. Maintaining regularity allows development teams to adapt rapidly to changing requirements, and working in close proximity, focusing on communication, means teams can make decisions and act on them immediately, rather than wait on correspondence. It is also important to reduce non-value adding intermediate artefacts to allow more resources to be devoted to product development for early completion. The SDLC however works best if the entire system can be accurately specified in the beginning. That is, users should know what the system should do long before the system is created. (Post Anderson, 2006) further explains that because of the rigidity of the SDLC, the development of more modern applications are difficult, hence the combination of existing SDLC models and the creation of other alternatives models and methodologies are adopted as outlined later in this paper. Advantages Easier to use. Easier to manage because of rigidity Phases are completed at specific phase intervals Requirements are very well understood. Disadvantages scope adjustment during the life cycle can kill a project Working software is not produced until the life cycle is complete. Not suited for long and ongoing projects. In appropriate where requirements are at a moderate to high risk of changing Alternative development mythologies One management advantage of the traditional SDLC method is the sequential series of tasks; on the other hand using the traditional SDLC has many drawbacks. For example, when adopting a traditional SDLC methodology, the rigid chain of phases may subsequently make it impossible for developers to improved ways to provide functional requirements as the project is being built, which results in the designers redoing their work. Instead programmers should be involved in the planning and design phases, so that they may be able to identify improvements much earlier in the process, thus enhancing the effectiveness of project activities, (FFIEC IT Handbook (2009). Development solutions such as iterative and Rapid prototyping address many of the shortcomings of a traditional SDLC. And a brief description of two the newer methodologies are outlined below along with some advantages and disadvantages for comparison purposes. Agile Development Model Agile software development is a conceptual framework for undertaking software engineering projects. Agile methods attempt to minimize risk and maximize productivity by developing software in short iterations and de-emphasizing work on secondary or interim work artefacts. The key differences between agile and traditional methodologies are as follows: Development is incremental rather than sequential. People and interactions are emphasized. Working software is the priority rather than detailed documentation. Customer collaboration is used, rather than contract negotiation. Responding to change is emphasized, rather than extensive planning. Rapid Prototyping model Rapid prototyping is a process for creating a realistic model of a products user interface (Najjar, L. J. (1990) ,Using rapid prototyping, you model the look and feel of the user interface without investing the time and labour required to write actual code (Najjar, L. J. (1990). Advantages Saves time and money Promotes consistency in user interface design Allows early customer involvement Reduces time required to create a product functional specification Disadvantages Usually does not produce reusable code Lacks an obvious stopping point Conclusion It can be seen from the above comparison that differing philosophies can produce radically different views of a system. Nevertheless, both the Traditional SDLC and the alternatives produce valid working systems as well as their share in drawbacks The one size fits all approach to applying SDLC methodologies is no longer appropriate. Each SDLC methodology is only effective under specific conditions. (Traditional SDLC methodologies are often regarded as the proper and disciplined approach to the analysis and design of software applications but the drawback is that it takes a considerable amount of time and all of the system details have to be specified upfront. Methodologies like Rapid Prototyping alternatively are a compromise of rigidity and no rigidity. These new hybrid methods were created to bridge the gap with the evolution of more modern application developments requirements. Newer the less methodologies like Agile are most appropriate when volatility and uncertainty exist in the development requirements, and the SDLC is good when the requirements are already defined. Bibliography Najjar, L. J. (1990). Rapid prototyping (TR 52.0020). Atlanta, GA: IBM Corporation. http://www.lawrence-najjar.com/papers/Rapid_prototyping.html FFIEC IT Handbook (2009). Alternative development methodologies http://www.ffiec.gov/ffiecinfobase/booklets/d_a/02.html Senn James A. (1989), Analysis Design of Information Systems, Introduction to Information Systems, pg27 32 Ch1 McGraw-Hill Co- Singapore Post. G Anderson. D (2006), Management Information Systems, Organizing Business Solutions, pg 448 459 Ch 4 McGraw-Hill Co- New York Igor Hawryszkiewycz. (1998), Introduction to System Analysis Design, The Development Process, pg120 136 Ch 7 Prentice Hall- Australia Obrien A. O Marakas .M. (1989), Management Information Systems, Introduction to Information Systems, pg27 32 Ch1 McGraw-Hill Co- Singapore Systems development life cycle Systems development life cycle 1. Introduction SDLC, The systems development life cycle (SDLC) is a conceptual model used in project management that describes the stages involved in an information system development project, from an initial feasibility study through maintenance of the completed application. Hence an array of system development life cycle (SDLC) models has been created: Fountain, Spiral, rapid prototyping, synchronize and stabilize and Incremental. Although in the academic sense, SDLC can be used to refer to various processes followed during the development of software, SDLC is typically used to refer to the oldest of the traditional models a waterfall methodology. 2. Software Engineering Process The SDLC supports a list of important phases that are essential for developers, such as planning, analysis, design, and implementation, and are explained more in detail later in this report. Traditionally the waterfall model was regarded as the original: which adhered to a sequence of stages in which the output of each stage became the input for the next. No definitive models exist, but the steps can be describe and divided as follows: †¢ Project planning, feasibility study, Initiation: A feasibility study is a quick examination of the problems, goals and expected cost of the system. Projects are usually evaluated in three areas of feasibility: economical, operational, and technical. In addition, it is also used as a guide to keep the project on track and to evaluate the progress of project (Post Anderson, 2006). Thus the goal of the feasibility studies is to evaluate alternative systems solutions and to propose the most feasible and desirable business application for development, (Obrien Marakas, 2006) states that the feasibility of a proposed business system can be evaluated in four major categories Organizational Feasibility: An illustration of how a business supports the strategic business priorities of the organization. Economic feasibility: Identifies whether expected cost savings, increase revenue, increase profits and reductions in required investments will exceed the cost of developing and operating a proposed system. Technical feasibility: can be demonstrated if reliable hardware and software capable of meeting the needs of a proposed systems can be acquired or developed by the business in the required time. Operational feasibility: can be measured by the ability and willingness of management, employees, customers, suppliers and others to operate, use, and support a proposed system. for example if Tescos was to change its software platform at the tills to something entirely different, employees may begin to make to many errors and find ways around using it or just all together quite, thus it will fail to show operational feasibility. †¢ Requirements gathering and Systems Analysis: (Hawrzyszkiewycz 2004) This step defines the proposed business solutions and any new or changed businesses processes. The goal at this stage is to find any problems and attempt to fix the system or improve its productivity and efficiency. The technique here is to break the system into smaller pieces as it is easier to be explained to others and can be split up amongst different development team. A draw back of this though is that it takes time and effort to reintegrate all of the pieces (Post Anderson, 2006). †¢ Systems design: Functions and operations are described in detail during the design stage, including screen layouts, business rules, process diagrams and other documentation. The output of this stage will be to describe the new system as a collection of modules or subsystems. (Hawrzyszkiewycx 2004) states that system designs is a two step process, Broad design: which indentifies the main architecture of the proposed system which may include the language use to develop the databases, network configurations, software requirements and whether programs are to be developed using internal programmers or external contractors. Detailed design: only after the design phase is completed the detailed design phase can be initiated, during this phase the database and program modules are design and detailed user and system interaction procedures and protocols are documented. †¢ Build: Software developers may install (or modify and then install) purchased software or they may write new or custom design programs (Senn 1989). Just like the design phase, this phase is broken up into two separate sub phases, development and implementation. During the implementation phase the components built during the development are put into operational use. Usually this means that the new and old systems run parallel until users are trained in system operations and existing processes converted to the new system. (Hawrzyszkiewycz 2004) †¢ Testing: During the integration and test stage, the software artefacts, online help, and test data are migrated from the development environment to a separate test environment. At this point, all test cases are run to verify the correctness and completeness of the software. Successful execution of the test suite confirms a robust and complete migration capability. In addition, reference data is finalized for production use and production users are identified and linked to their appropriate roles. The final reference data (or links to reference data source files) and production user list are compiled into the Production Initiation Plan and the system is used experimentally to ensure that the software does not fail, also the code is tested iteratively at each level (Senn 1989). †¢ Installation, Implementation and Deployment: Implementation is a vital step in the deployment of information technology to support employees, customers, and other business stakeholders, the system implementation stage involves hardware and software acquisition, software development, testing of programs and procedures, conversion of data resources and additionally involves the educating and training of end users and specialist who will operate the new system. All together this is the final stage where the project is finally used by the business (Obrien Marakas, 2006). †¢ Maintenance: Once a system is fully implemented and is being used in business operation, the maintenance function begins; this involves the life of the system which may include changes and enhancements before its decommissioning. (Obrien Marakas, 2006) states that the maintenance activity includes a post implementation review process to ensure that newly implemented systems meet the business objectives establish for them. (Hawrzyszkiewycx (2004) supports the argument that maintenance is required to eliminate errors in the system during its working life and to improve the system in the light of changes by monitoring, evaluating and modifying operational business systems to make desirable or necessary improvements. 3. Evaluation and Reason for Adopting SDLC for a small Pc Application The adoption of the SDLC for the development of a small application on a pc will not be appropriate because the SDLC is just what is says it is the Life Cycle of the system software. The SDLC is a process use to manage time and resources on a project, from the identification of a need for the system Initiation) to rolling it out to the user (Implementation) to de-supporting or no longer needing it (Disposition), Each phase of the SDLC requires documentation, reporting, and approval. This assures that a project cannot get out of hand either by changing the direction or becoming a financial black hole and the project sponsors are aware at every step of exactly what is going on as it is documented. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that the development of a small application on a pc does not require the adoption of the SDLC model whereas a large systems which have teams of architects, analysts, programmers, testers and users must work together to create the millions of lines of cust om-written code that drive enterprises today, will without a doubt need to adopt an SDLC solution to manage the resources of such a project. 4. Evaluation Of the Traditional SDLC Strengths Limitations The Waterfall Model The waterfall model is the most classical sequential life cycle; each phase must be completed in its entirety before the next phase can begin. (Post Anderson, 2006) states that one advantage of the SDLC is the formality aspect which makes it easier to train employees and to evaluate the progress of the development as well as ensuring that steps are not skip, such as user approval, documentation and testing. In addition with eighty percent of MIS resources spent of maintenance, adhering to standards whilst building the system makes it easier to modify and maintain in the future because of the documentation generated and the sustain consistency, however the formality of the SDLC approach can be problematic as it increases the cost of development and lengthens the development time (Post Anderson, 2006) The formality of the SDLC method also causes problems with projects that are hard to defined, unlike newer methods like Agile which helps software development teams to respond to the unpredictability of building software through incremental, iterative work cadences, known as sprints (Cohn, Mike 2006). Agile Methods aim at allowing organizations to deliver quickly, change quickly and change often. While, agile techniques vary in practice and emphasis, they share common characteristics, including iterative development and a focus on inter-action and communication. Maintaining regularity allows development teams to adapt rapidly to changing requirements, and working in close proximity, focusing on communication, means teams can make decisions and act on them immediately, rather than wait on correspondence. It is also important to reduce non-value adding intermediate artefacts to allow more resources to be devoted to product development for early completion. The SDLC however works best if the entire system can be accurately specified in the beginning. That is, users should know what the system should do long before the system is created. (Post Anderson, 2006) further explains that because of the rigidity of the SDLC, the development of more modern applications are difficult, hence the combination of existing SDLC models and the creation of other alternatives models and methodologies are adopted as outlined later in this paper. Advantages Easier to use. Easier to manage because of rigidity Phases are completed at specific phase intervals Requirements are very well understood. Disadvantages scope adjustment during the life cycle can kill a project Working software is not produced until the life cycle is complete. Not suited for long and ongoing projects. In appropriate where requirements are at a moderate to high risk of changing Alternative development mythologies One management advantage of the traditional SDLC method is the sequential series of tasks; on the other hand using the traditional SDLC has many drawbacks. For example, when adopting a traditional SDLC methodology, the rigid chain of phases may subsequently make it impossible for developers to improved ways to provide functional requirements as the project is being built, which results in the designers redoing their work. Instead programmers should be involved in the planning and design phases, so that they may be able to identify improvements much earlier in the process, thus enhancing the effectiveness of project activities, (FFIEC IT Handbook (2009). Development solutions such as iterative and Rapid prototyping address many of the shortcomings of a traditional SDLC. And a brief description of two the newer methodologies are outlined below along with some advantages and disadvantages for comparison purposes. Agile Development Model Agile software development is a conceptual framework for undertaking software engineering projects. Agile methods attempt to minimize risk and maximize productivity by developing software in short iterations and de-emphasizing work on secondary or interim work artefacts. The key differences between agile and traditional methodologies are as follows: Development is incremental rather than sequential. People and interactions are emphasized. Working software is the priority rather than detailed documentation. Customer collaboration is used, rather than contract negotiation. Responding to change is emphasized, rather than extensive planning. Rapid Prototyping model Rapid prototyping is a process for creating a realistic model of a products user interface (Najjar, L. J. (1990) ,Using rapid prototyping, you model the look and feel of the user interface without investing the time and labour required to write actual code (Najjar, L. J. (1990). Advantages Saves time and money Promotes consistency in user interface design Allows early customer involvement Reduces time required to create a product functional specification Disadvantages Usually does not produce reusable code Lacks an obvious stopping point 5. Conclusion It can be seen from the above comparison that differing philosophies can produce radically different views of a system. Nevertheless, both the Traditional SDLC and the alternatives produce valid working systems as well as their share in drawbacks The one size fits all approach to applying SDLC methodologies is no longer appropriate. Each SDLC methodology is only effective under specific conditions. (Traditional SDLC methodologies are often regarded as the proper and disciplined approach to the analysis and design of software applications but the drawback is that it takes a considerable amount of time and all of the system details have to be specified upfront. Methodologies like Rapid Prototyping alternatively are a compromise of rigidity and no rigidity. These new hybrid methods were created to bridge the gap with the evolution of more modern application developments requirements. Newer the less methodologies like Agile are most appropriate when volatility and uncertainty exist in the development requirements, and the SDLC is good when the requirements are already defined. 6. Bibliography Najjar, L. J. (1990). Rapid prototyping (TR 52.0020). Atlanta, GA: IBM Corporation. http://www.lawrence-najjar.com/papers/Rapid_prototyping.html FFIEC IT Handbook (2009). Alternative development methodologies http://www.ffiec.gov/ffiecinfobase/booklets/d_a/02.html Senn James A. (1989), Analysis Design of Information Systems, Introduction to Information Systems, pg27 32 Ch1 McGraw-Hill Co- Singapore Post. G Anderson. D (2006), Management Information Systems, Organizing Business Solutions, pg 448 459 Ch 4 McGraw-Hill Co- New York Igor Hawryszkiewycz. (1998), Introduction to System Analysis Design, The Development Process, pg120 136 Ch 7 Prentice Hall- Australia Obrien A. O Marakas .M. (1989), Management Information Systems, Introduction to Information Systems, pg27 32 Ch1 McGraw-Hill Co- Singapore

The Importance of Celtic Culture in Sir Gawain and the Green Knight Ess

The Importance of Celtic Culture in Sir Gawain and the Green Knight   Ã‚  Ã‚   In Sir Gawain and the Green Knight, one can discover a variety of reasons why the Green Knight is indeed green.   Some can be found in open text while others one has to search for.   There is possibly another aspect involved in the holly leaf he carries in his first appearance.   The deeper aspect of the Green Knight is how he ties into the beliefs and culture of the Celts.    The most obvious reason why the green knight is green are stated throughout his introduction.   "Fellow, and his hands were green, and his face.   And his armor, and his shirt, were green, all green...everything about him was elegant green" (line 150-55,66). Every piece of clothing that the Green Knight is in is green.   His skin color was green and he was elegantly dressed in all of it. This gigantic man was the total opposite of Arthur's Knights.   They were smaller and clean-.   The Green Knight had a manly beard to symbolize Celtic culture.   He rides in on his great green horse!   "He seemed half an ogre, a giant, but clearly the biggest creature in the world" (line 141-42). The most frightening thing any of the Knights of Camelot could ever see.   The combined aspect of being green and a giant to the knights is what makes him so frightening.    Not only the great knight is green but his horse too!   "It was carved with lovely green symbols...what it meant that a knight and his horse could have such a color, could grow as green as grass, or greener!" (lines 216 233-235).  Ã‚   Today in many cultures "different" people are always striking fear into people. He is dressed in all green with his Celtic symbols surrounding him.   If any man represented their religion to the fullest i... ...re not worthy to fight him.   They don't have any beards and in his religion would be considered feeble and unrespectable.   He demonstrates his strength the entire scene he is talking with Arthur and his knights.    The Green Knight is the perfect representation of the Celtic culture   He is protected by his Celtic magic from the holly branch and the power of the god Cernunnos.   This enables him to be strong in his own beliefs and to challenge the Christian Knights.   The author created the Green Knight based on factors that all lead up to the perfect representation of the Celtic people.    Works Cited    "Coverage of Youth Crime Promotes Fear, Study Says."   (Online) Available   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   http://www.childrennow.org/newsroom/news-01/cam-ra-4-10-01.htm. 1 Dec. 2001. Wood, Juliette.   The Celts   New York: Duncan Baird Publishers, 1998.   

Pipeline Risk Analysis

Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas Pipeline Projects in Pakistan S. Mubin1 and G. Mubin2 1 2 Civil Engineering Department University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore, Pakistan Instructor, VTI, PVTC, Govt. of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Abstract In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed.Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices ar e also important risk factors.All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks.Keywords: Oil and Gas pipelines; Risk Analysis and Management; Monte Carlo simulation 1. Introduction Oil and gas sector is considered as back bone of any country’s economy. In Pakistan industrialization, agriculture, transportation and even domestic utilization of the energy depends on oil and gas sector. Almost 80 % of power generation is oil and gas based (50% gas and 30% oil) [1]. For efficient energy production there is a need of efficient transportation system (main and distribution network of pipeline) in the country, which is not sufficient to fulfill the country’s requirement.As per World Bank Report only 21% of the total population of the country has access on natural gas. Due to the growing demands, pipeline network is expanding vigorously as during the last 10 years the network of main and distribution gas pipeline was expanded by 85% [2]. Currently Pakistan is meeting its gas demand by internal sources but by the year 2011 the difference between country’s gas demand and supply will be 1. 2 Bcfd which will rise to 3. 1 Bcfd by the year 2015 and ultimately to 11. 1 Bcfd by the year 2025 [3].To fill the gap between demands and supply Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipeline from neighboring countries. Options of Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar are available for gas import. Figure 1 shows that route of future cross country pipeline. In Pakistan, expected investment in pipeline construction is within range of 7 to10 billion dollars during the next 5-10 years [4]. Structure and characteristics of risk are different in different mega project such as Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline due to multi-party involvement from different geographic locations and regulatory structure [5].These mega projects may be termed as international projects defined as those where the owner and/or contractor may be from a country different to that of where the project is situated typically involve a wider range of issues than domestic projects and in effect, moving outside of one’s usual business jurisdiction interjects many unknowns. Factors impacting owner investment decisions with international capital facilities can be quite complex and may vary significantly from region to region and project to project [18].Nature and impact of risk are different in different stages of project life cycle of pipeline projects. For most e ffective risk management it is recommended to plan, analyze and manage risk in all phases of project life cycle i. e. initializing, concept clearance and feasibility, design, construction and operation. Understanding the relationship between risk Corresponding Author: S. Mubin ([email  protected] edu. pk) Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan management and project phases for capital projects can be a difficult task.For instance, some risks are negligible in construction phase but are of vital importance in design phase such as earthquake. While dealing with risk management of international projects, which are often first or one-time efforts and project progress and phasing decisions can be isolated from risk management. For most international projects, different participants are responsible for control of the various phases of a project’s life cycle. In many cases, the project owner is largely responsible for program analysis, a thirdparty is often hired to design (engineering), construct, manage and control to meet the initial onstraints set by the owner [6]. Contractor is hired to construct the project, which turns the results over to the owner for operations or production. Structuring projects with distinct phases and responsibilities can increase risk by isolating the project participants in such a manner that minimal attention is given to overarching project concerns. Individual project participants become concerned with only their own project risks and either willingly or unwillingly try to transfer these risks to other project participants.To limit the scope of this paper the discussion is confined to the risks occurring during construction and operation phase. Figure 1: The routes of future gas pipeline project in the region. The uncertainty in undertaking construction of a pipeline project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. Since each participant tries to m inimize its own risk, the conflicts among various participants can be detrimental to the project. Systematic risk management of project activities is not fully recognized as valuable by practitioners in the construction industry.No common view of risk exists since the owner, investor, designer, and constructor have differing project goals and objectives, and historically adverse relationships are common. In recent years, the concept of â€Å"risk sharing/risk assignment† contracts has gained acceptance in pipeline design and construction. The distribution of risk between the client and contractor tends to overshadow effective management strategies and investigations show that contactors and owners give minimal consideration to risks outside the realm of their own concerns.The Federation Internationale des Ingenieurs Conseils (the International Federation of Consulting Engineers, FIDIC) and the International European Construction Federation (FIEC) publish two well-known and wi dely-accepted forms of conditions of contract for international construction projects (the Red and Yellow Books) that include provisions on the fair and equitable risk sharing between the owner and the contractor as well as risk responsibilities, liabilities, indemnity, and insurance [7].Considering technological point of view geographical conditions of Pakistan are very complex for the construction of pipeline projects. Almost 50 % of the total area of Pakistan is mountainous or semi-mountainous and in rest of the 23 Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 area there is wide network of rivers and canals (Figure 2). Therefore, for linear structure like pipelines there are extensive crossings and sometimes extreme site conditions are met, where degree of risk is increased as compare to normal conditions of construction.On the other hand, risks during operation of pipelines have different characteristics depending upon the strength and weakness of operating organization, topographi cal, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country where project is executed. While dealing with natural risks, the geology and geographical characteristics of the regions must be thoroughly studied. For instance, the two continental plates i. e. Indian and Eurasian meet in Pakistan which highly impact on the eodynamics of the region which are the major source of earthquake [8]. In monsoon period there is high probability of floods. Typical topography, steep slopes, high rainfall in a specific period (JuneAugust) and high temperature (melting glaciers) are the dominating factors for intensifying the frequency of floods in a particular year. Considering geopolitics of the regions there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism.The economic instability has added the problem due to that there is frequent change in economic parameters. All these are in fact the potential risks for any construction project especially oil and gas pipelines in which risk are multiplied many fold and there is exponential rise in damage in case of occurrence of one or more risks resulting huge human and environmental losses. Figure 2: Map of Pakistan showing important geological and geographical features of the country . Classification of Risks For effective Risk Management, risk classification is of prime importance. There are many kinds of classifications have been made so far [10]. In general, risks associated with pipeline projects may be classified as broadly: †¢ †¢ Risk during Construction Risk during Operation However, in operation, risk are slightly different, in which emphasis is given to avoid those factor with hurdle safe and smooth operation/functioning of pipeline.Usually, in mega projects such as cross country trunk pipelines investment risk are considered most import followed by the security risk. More precisely, risk during construction and operation of oil and gas pipelines can be divided into following categories (Table 1): The type and causes of risk in each class are different. Risks during construction are time susceptible and the probability of occurrence of different risk are time dependent, more is the duration of project higher are the probabilities.These are generally related to execution of work processes, material availability, manpower, finances (budget), time frame, accidental, legal and environmental. 24 i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Political risk Socio-economical risk Technical risk Organizational risk Natural catastrophic risk Financial risk (investment risk) Safety and security risk Environment risk Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table1: Risk Classifications No 1. Category Risk Political risks Unstable Govt. olicies Change in economic parameters Breach in contractual relationship Unrealistic cost baseline and financial delay Inefficient communication Accident during construction or operation Earthquake Risk Factors Change in labour policy Rise in inflati on and material prices Loss of venture or partnership Exchange rate risk and rise in interest rate Inefficient and conventional technologies Not use of HSE policies and standard floods Damage to surrounding environment Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Seasonal unavailability of labour Unrealistic SWOT analysis Strikes, lockout, lawlessness Change in economic policies and tax system Fine or compensation 2. Socio-economical risks Organizational risks 3. 4. Investment risk Disinvestment from market Insufficient resources and equipment Terrorism or war Strong credit policy Quality risk and rework Human error (Damage or loss of machine or human resource) Weather conditions e. g. humidity, precipitation Damage to ecology and wildlife 5. Technological risk 6. Security risk 7. Natural and climatic risk Landslide, hurricanes Depletion of hydrocarbon resources 8. Damage to Environmental risk natural resources 2. 1 Political Risk The effect of country’s policies on the project directly impact on project success or failure.During the policy making process, technical factors are usually ignored and policies may be set in a way that operation of a project may not be economical or trade offing. This factor is also important in unstable governments, where there is more risk of change of economic, petroleum or labor policies, which are directly related to the pipeline projects. Delays can occur due to laborious and detailed procedure for approval from public safety regulation department, environmental regulation agencies and oil and gas regulatory bodies. Public health, safety and environmental concern are more important in the western countries as compare to developing countries like Pakistan. Policy and political risks are more concerned in international project risks, such as cross border pipeline projects.In international projects these risks 25 are sometimes overlooked or assessed haphazardly. Such risks include war, civil war, terrorism, expropriation, in ability to transfer currency across borders, and trade credit defaults by foreign or domestic customers [6]. Although risks such as civil unrest and economic stability are typically outside the scope, understanding and dealing with these risks are critical for companies working internationally. A 2001 study by AON Trade Credit discovered that, in the Fortune 1000, only about 26 percent of companies had in place systematic and consistent methodologies to assess political risks [6]. 2. 2 Socio-economical riskSocio-economical conditions further reinforced the climate of uncertainty with high inflation and interest rates. The deregulation of financial institutions has also generated unanticipated problems related to the financing of construction. These risks can be forecasted and linked with the economic indicators of the country. For instance, In Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Pakistan, the economic indicators are tending to grow regardless of the political instability in t he country. The GDP of the country was 8. 4% prior to 2005 earthquake, which declined down to GDP 5. 6 or less currently. Earthquake and floods during the last two year costed government approximately $5. 4 B and expected to spend more $3. 6bn till 2010.Overall there is growth in the market and potential for foreign investment in construction sector [1]. 2. 3 Technical risk The risks related to technological problems are familiar to the design/construct professions which have some degree of control over this category. However, because of rapid advances in new technologies which present new problems to designers and constructors, technological risk has become greater in many instances. Certain design assumptions which have served the professions well in the past may become obsolete in present time. Site conditions, particularly subsurface conditions which always present some degree of uncertainty, can create an even greater degree of uncertainty during construction.Because constructi on procedures may not have been fully anticipated, the design may have to be modified after construction has begun. An example of facilities which have encountered such uncertainty is the nuclear power plant, and many owners, designers and contractors have suffered for undertaking such projects. There is a need of technological advancement to overcome this risk. statistics, geological surveys, sub surface investigation through various method has given rise to the development of such techniques which can not only quantify frequency of occurring of such phenomenon in a particular region but also their impact and destruction. Northern areas of Pakistan are considered in high seismic zone [8] particularly after incidence of 8th Oct. 005 earthquake, in which more than 86000 people died and one million got injured and 3 million became homeless, this factor is highly considered in planning, feasibility, design and construction of the any construction project in the region [9]. The major re ason is the plate tectonic motion in Himalaya, northern part of Pakistan. This plate tectonic motion is due to the uplift of Euro Asian plate by Indian plate (two plates are meeting in Pakistan) 2. 6 Investment risk Pipelines are mega project. A lot of funding is required for the completion and safe operation of pipelines. Investment has been always a prime risk in construction project due to multi party involvement.But especially for the international pipeline project, this is always risk of payback and trade offing, because of the bilateral and diplomatic relationships. 2. 7 Safety and security risk In a broader sense, safety and security risks include factors due to that loss or damage of resources (manpower, machinery and financial resources) or facilities (pipeline, pipeline crossing, gas compressor station) can occur during construction or operation phase of a pipeline. It is very often that loss of work time, machinery and manpower occur due to accident on side because of the negligence of some worker. These risks involve all actions (accident, malfunctioning, terrorism, war etc) due to that loss of resources nd production of pipeline can occur. These risks are more likely to occur during operation phase however, these can be occurring in construction stage as well. To cater these risk to occur Health safety policy is strengthen so that to minimize on-site and offsite accidents during construction. It is generally accepted that the pipeline are the target in terrorists’ attacks and wars. For, instance, history prevails that in last five years the total terrorist attacks made on the pipelines in Pakistan were 103. It may be the result of internal political situation of the country but anywhere in the world this factor of risk is considered to be very important.For safe operations, state of the art methodology and technology has been developed which ensure safe exploitation of pipeline, which include remote sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS) and mapping techniques, Light detection and ranging (LIDAR), Global positioning system (GPS), data acquisition (SCADA) and In-line inspection (ILI) etc. 26 2. 4 Organizational risk The risks related to organization and organizational relationships may appear to be unnecessary but are quite real. Strained relationships may develop between various organizations involved in the design/construct process. When problems occur, discussions often center on responsibilities rather than project needs at a time when the focus should be on solving the problems.Cooperation and communication between the parties are discouraged for fear of the effects of impending litigation. This barrier to communication results from the illconceived notion that uncertainties resulting from technological problems can be eliminated by appropriate contract terms. The net result has been an increase in the costs of constructed facilities. 2. 5 Natural catastrophic risk Natural catastrophic risks are those on w hich there is no control. They are usually the ‘act of God’ and can occur at anytime and anywhere. Earthquake, floods, hurricanes are the common examples of these risks. However, due to the development of the science and technology in the field of simulation and modeling,Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan 2. 8 Environmental risk Environmental concerns and awareness is increasing everywhere. The worldwide environmental protection movement has contributed to the uncertainty for construction because of the inability to know what will be required and how long it will take to obtain approval from the regulatory agencies. This delay in approval practically influence on total costs of the project. Public safety regulations have similar effects. The situation constantly change guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners, as projects move through the stages of planning to construction due to the change in govt. policies.These moving targets add a significant new dimension of uncertainty which can make it virtually impossible to schedule and complete work at budgeted cost . Risk management reduces the impact of negative risks and enhances positive risk to make opportunities. However, limiting our scope in this section to negative risks, risk management may be defined as a method to reduce the consequences of negative events (risk) tend to occur during construction and operation of pipeline by developing mechanisms and strategies (risk transfer, risk reduction, risk distribution, avoidance, risk enhancement) compatible to the system environment in which project is executed. The strategy of risk management is based on risk analysis results for a particular project.According to Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk management [11] the process includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Risk management planning Risk identification Qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk reduction strategies 3. Ri sk Management Process Generally risk analysis and management had not been applied in construction industry and especially in pipeline projects. It is comparatively new area for pipeline projects, which is rapidly advancing due to the involvement of non native client or contractor. However, the concept of risk analysis and management is getting fame in pipeline project due to involvement of multinational contractor/organizations.Basically risk management deals with management of positive and negative events which occurs during realization of projects. 3. 1 Risk management planning Risk management process (PMI approach) starts with the planning of risk management, which includes a detailed risk management planning. In Risk management planning the proposed course of action for risk analysis is set. The input, output and process are shown in the table 2. Table 2: Process showing Risk Management Planning [19] Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Proj ect scope management Project management plan Planning meeting and analysis Risk Management Plan Planning course of action Process Out put 3. 2 Risk Identification processFor effective risk analysis and management the identification of risk is very important carefully such that no important factor is left which can negatively impact on the project. The risk indemnification process input and output are shown in table 3, which include the following: Information Gathering Techniques: Examples of information gathering techniques used in identifying risk can include brainstorming, Delphi techniques, interviewing, root cause identification and SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) 27 analysis. Brainstorming is important data gathering technique for risk identification in which a group of team members or subject-matter experts (design, construction, purchase, finance etc) together identify expected risks.Delphi is another technique of information gathering used as a way t o reach a consensus of experts on a subject. Experts on the subject participate in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas Project Documentation Reviews: For risk identification project documentation are reviewed, including plans, assumptions, prior project files, and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 consistency between those plans and with the project requirements and assumptions, can be indicators of risk in the project. Assumptions Analysis: Every pipeline project is conceived and developed based on a set of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions.Assumptions analysis is a tool that explores the validity of assumptions as they apply to the project. It identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Table 3: Process of Risk Identification Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope man agement Project management plan Risk Management plan Checklist Analysis: Risk identification checklists can be developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist.Diagramming techniques: Some Risk diagramming techniques may also be used for risk identification which includes cause-and-effect diagrams, system or process flow charts and influence diagrams. Process Information collection Documentation review Assumption analysis Checklist analysis Diagramming techniques Out put Risk Register 3. 3 Qualitative risk analysis There are several theories to quantify risks [12, 17]. Numerous different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for risk quantification is: Rate of Occurrence i. e. , probability multiplied by the Impact of event equal to Risk Number, mathematically expressed in equation 7. The i nputs and output of qualitative risk analysis process is shown in table-4.PMI defined values of probability and impact factor can be used in risk analysis given in Table 5. However, the selection of one of the value of P for a particle risk from table 5, is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. The objective is to prioritize risk based on their probability and impact assessment. Probability and Impact matrix is used to visualize the impact of risk from least to maximum possibility. Another method called Risk Data Quality Assessment is used which requires accurate and unbiased data Analysis of the quality of risk data is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management.It involves examining the degree to which the risk is understood. Risks to the project can be categorized by sources of risk (e. g. , using the RBS), the area of the project affected (e. g. , using the Work Breakdown Structure), or other useful c ategory (e. g. , project phase) to determine areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. Table – 4 Process showing Qualitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Risk probability and impact assessment Probability and Impact matrix Risk data quality assessment Risk categorization Risk Register (updates) Out put 28Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table 5: Standard values of frequency of occurrence and Impact factors [11] Possibility of occurrence very high chance High chance Greater chance Possible Likely Unlikely Probability (P) 90 % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% Type and level of risk Impact When maximum impact on scope, time and cost High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope Impact Factor (I) 0. 9 0. 6 0. 3 0. 1 3. 4 Quantitative risk analysisFor quantitative risk analysis any of the following method may be used as illustrated in Table 6. incorporates probabilities and the costs or rewards of each logical path of events and future decisions, and uses expected monetary value analysis to help the organization identify the relative values of alternate actions. See also expected monetary value analysis. Sensitivity analysis: Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline value.One typical display of sensitivity analysis is tornado diagram, which is useful for comparing relative importance of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. Expected Mon etary Value (EMV) Analysis: It is a statistical technique that calculates the expected outcome of future scenarios in monetary form that may or may not happen. Modeling and simulation: Modeling and simulation is recommended for cost and schedule risk analysis because it is more powerful and less subject to misapplication than expected monetary value analysis. Simulation uses a model that translates the uncertainties specified at a detailed level of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. 3. 5 Risk eduction strategies Risk register may be obtained from risk management procedure defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) [11], which is a document containing the results of the qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. On the basis of risk analysis risk reducing strategy is set which is also given in risk register. The risk register in that way, presents all related information of identified risks including description, category, cause, probabil ity of occurring, impact(s), risk number and the possible strategy set for each risk. Decision Tree: The decision tree is a diagram that describes a decision under consideration and the implications of choosing one or another of the available alternatives. It is used when some future scenarios or outcomes of actions are uncertain.It Table 6: Process showing Quantitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Out put Quantitative risk analysis ( Sensitivity analysis, Decision Tree, Modeling and Simulation, Expected Monetary Value, EMV) 29 Risk Register (updates) Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 The common course of action of the any organization or participant (consultant, contractor, client or owner) participating in the construction process of oil and gas pipeline can adopt one or combination of course of action given below, depending upon the type of project, lo cation and circumstances.Distribution of risk between participants of the project can be made by: 1. Risk Transfer (insurance, contracts) 2. Contingency Budget 3. Risk mitigation (problem solving and root cause analysis) 4. Risk avoidance 4. Development of Risk Management Model for Pipeline Construction Projects Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk analysis and management may be complicated and laborious for construction project like pipeline. Therefore a model of risk analysis and management is developed which simplifies the process and produce more probable results with the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (Figure 3). Project document review Market Analysis Client/Contractor reviewGeopolitical analysis and review 2. Risk Classification Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) 3. Risk probability and impact factor Data collection (Authentic source) Data processing (Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log, etc distribution) Calculation of Frequency (P) and Impact factor (I) 4. Risk an alysis 5. Monte Carlo Simulation Identification of critical risk 6. Risk management strategy Risk Transfer (Contract, insurance) Risk Distribution (Between parties) Risk Mitigation (Eliminating risk causes) Risk Avoidance 7. Risk monitoring process Documentation Monitoring process and results Check and make changes Data Bank Figure3: Risk Management Model for pipelines construction project. 30Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan STEP-1: Model starts with identification and classification of risks considering the type of construction project. Degree and frequency of risk varies from trunk pipeline to distribution line. Similarly it gives suitable approach for both the major parties i. e. Owner (client) and the Contractor. Before identifying the risk the market review, client/contractor capability and geopolitical conditions of the region are analyzed where project is expected to be executed. The types of risk are also depending upon the ty pe of contractual relationship between the owner and constructing firm. In different ypes of contract (Build-Operate and Transfer, Engineering-Purchase and Construction, Figure, Turnkey contracts, Labour contract, etc) between the owner and constructing body the level and intensity of risk differs [13]. STEP-2: On the basis of risk identification risk are categorized and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is made as shown in Figure 4. Risk identification is the most important thing followed by the probability and impact calculations in whole risk analysis process. Figure 4: Risk Breakdown Structure of gas pipeline project STEP-3: Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, cost, scope, or quality.The selection of PMI defined the values of probability and impact factor given in Table 5 is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial res ults. For instance, it may be difficult some time to distinguish the possibility from â€Å"Higher Chance† to â€Å"Greater Chance† for that an expert can use 60% probability value however, another use 45%. In that way some negligible risk may be superseded to other important risk. Risk impact factor defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) are used in this study which range from 0,1 to 0. 9 depending upon the type and impact of event to the project. For risk Monte Carlo Simulation the precise value of probabilities are required.Therefore, probability and impact of each risk may be calculated based on historic data. In this 31 case we the values of probability of different risks are calculated by using different probability distribution curves, however, when the historical data is not available, the probability is judged by experts opinion (from SNGPL) or the direct value of probability for that particular risk published by the related government agency. It is ver y important to define the probability distribution of a risk on the basis of that the frequency of occurrence is calculated. It is observed that the probability distribution of different risk appearing in different stages of project life cycle is different.Therefore, during calculation of probability of each risk the characteristic of risk must be considered to find the appropriate distribution to get the more precise results. For example, figure 5 shows the 10 year data of flood [21] depicts that the a normal curve is best suited to find the probability of a given volume/time called as the flood flow may be calculated using Equation 1,2 and 3 [14]. Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Figure 5: Graphical representation of flood data 1990-2001 where P – probability of occurrence Z – area under normal curves for a given value X (the probability of that area can be found out from charts) ? – mean value of the 10 year data of river flows. ? – standard deviation of the mean data.On the basis of historical data, obtained from IRSA, the probability of river flow more than 400 (MAF) (which is termed as flood flow) through river system of Pakistan (sum of river flow at a time on Mangla and Terbela) is calculated by using measured. Similarly other risks are also quantified based on the characteristic of data distribution curve. For instance, for earthquakes we are interested to find the probability of occurrence earthquake more than 5. 5 Richer Scale. According to construction codes, the earthquake between 3. 5-5. 4 Richer Scale is often felt, but rarely causes damage. A value of 5. 5 Richer Scale is selected to calculate probability of 32 occurrence under assumption that almost slight damage to well designed buildings can caused major damage to poorly constructed buildings over small regions.Pipelines can go under slight damage of residual. For a random variable X (x > 0 and elsewhere i. e. x < 0 the value of probability is zero) have an exponential distribution with parameter ? then probability distribution is defined as in equation (4), (5) and (6) [14]. Therefore either exponential or gamma distribution (with m =1) may be used for probability calculation of earthquake at a given value (in Richer Scale) using the historical data [9], as shown in the Figure 6. where P – probability of occurrence ? – mean value of historic data ? – standard deviation of the historic data e – 2. 718282 VAR is the variance at any value X. For 5. Richer Scale earthquake ? = 1 ? P (X > 5. 5) = ? 1. e – 1*5. 5 = 0. 000408 5. 5 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Frequency of occurrence 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Earthquake Intensity (Richer scale) Figure 6: Graphical representation 45 year earthquake data STEP-4: On the basis of probability values for each risk a risk register (table 7) may be made which presents quantitative risk analysis for each risk. PMI defined impact factor can be used which clear cut defines the type and condition of risk impact. On the basis of this formula below qualitative risk analysis is made.The following relationship is used for risk analysis [11]: RN = P x I RN – Risk Number P – Probability of occurrence I – Impact factor of risk For parameters the data is not available expert judgment can be used for probability assessment. Risk Number (RN) can be found for all risk identified in Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS). Manually it can be identified critical risk having larger risk number, RN based on the one point calculation. However, the more authentic way to identify the critical risks associated to pipeline project is Monte Carlo Simulation approach which is discussed in next step. STEP 5: Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used computational method for generating probability distributions of variables that depend on other variables or param eters represented as probability distributions.Although Monte Carlo simulation has been used since the 1940s, development of computer technology has made it accessible and attractive for many new applications [15]. That availability has coincided with increasing dissatisfaction with the deterministic or point estimate calculations typically used in quantitative risk assessment; as a result, Monte Carlo simulation is rapidly gaining popularity. Monte Carlo simulation, which is a mathematical method used in risk analysis to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic 33 (7) inputs would involve many calculations of the intake rate rather than a single calculation; for each calculation, the computation would use a value for each input parameter randomly selected from the probability density function for that variable [16].Each simulation is generated by randomly pulling a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e. g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. These input sample values are then used to calculate the results, i. e. total project duration, total project cost, project finish time. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. This procedure is then repeated until the probability distributions are sufficiently well represented to achieve the desired level of accuracy. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc. Monte Carlo simulations have been proven an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties.In Monte Carlo simulation any desired level of mathematical accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of iterations. Risks are probable entities, it is possible that all the risk accrued at the same time during project execution and may be no identified risk appears. Therefore, it is desired to use Monte Carlo simulation technique to find the most critical and probable risk which can appear in the pi peline project. Risk analysis has been made by using program Riskyproject 1. 3. 3 [20] which is an advanced project management software with integrated risk analysis. RiskyProject is used for planning, scheduling, quantitative risk analysis, and performance measurement of projects with multiple risks and uncertainties.RiskyProject determines which parameters will have the most effect on the project: duration, cost, and finish time with and without risks, crucial tasks, critical risks, and success rate. RiskyProject helps to optimize the course of the project: track project performance and risk together and analyze the affect of mitigation efforts [22]. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulation critical risks are Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Table 7: Risk input in risk register and their quantitative analysis for pre-defined risks Risk Identification and Categorization Cat. Risk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 1. 2. Risk Register Risk An alysis Freq. Risk reducing StrategyRanking 27 3 23 25 8 14 29 1 12 21 16 8 9 12 4 5 3 2 24 18 19 11 10 5 20 11 12 5 15 3 12 2 6 8 Risk Avoidance Risk Risk Transfer Mitigation Remarks Risk Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Unstable Government policies Change in regulations Change in labor policy Change in petroleum policy Political instability Lawlessness, strikes, lockouts Change in economic parameters Hike in material prices Unavailability of skilled laborers Change in project scope Insufficient technology Completion of construction not on time Not realistic planning of resources and volume of work Request for increase in project budget In sufficient specialist and engineers Strains in contractual relationships Financial delays Disinvestment from the market Loss ofPartnership Change in credit policy (increase interest rate) Design not completed in time Unexpected obstacle on site (dewatering, rock excavation) Slow communication between team members War Terrorism Accident on site during construction Loss of human life Earthquake Flood Landslides Unexpended weather condition, precipitation wind storms Damage to environment Degradation of natural resources (P) 5,15% 8% 2,10% 2,90% 5% 4% 4,50% 8,10% 8,03% 6,80% 3,9 % 10% 9,50% 8,10% 13,13 % 6,50% 5,30% 6. 1 % 4,40% 3,01% 5,10% 7,80% 7,80% 5,90% 0,10% 2,20% 2% 3,90% 0,04% 3,07% 2,1 % 4,72% 3,75% 1,10% Impact (I) 0,32 0,6 4 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,1 1Risk Number 1,55% 4,80% 1,89% 1,74% 3,00% 2,40% 1,35% 7,29% 2,41% 2,04% 2,34% 3,00% 2,88% 2,43% 3,94% 3,90% 4,77% 5,49% 0,44% 1,81% 1,53% 2,34% 2,34% 3,54% 0,09% 1,98% 1,80% 2,34% 0,12% 2,76% 0,63% 2,82% 2,25% 0,66% E?5 E? E? GO E? E? E? 6 3 GO, EO SA 7 GO E? EO EO EO SA GO SA EO EO SA EO SA EO EO EO SA SA SA SA SA SA SA GO GO 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,6 0. 1- When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope. 0. 3- High impact on time, medium impac t on scope and lesser impact on cost. 3. 0. 6- High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost. 4. 0. 9- When maximum impact on scope, time and cost. 5.EO- Frequency of risk is based on expert’s opinion. 6. GO- Frequency of risk is based on statistic available by relevant Government organization. 7. SA- Frequency of risk is based on statistical analysis. 34 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Figure-7(a): Monte Carlo Simulation conducted for risk analysis of Muree Rawat gas pipeline project presents most probable cost and duration to complete project. It also presents most probable date of completion of the project considering all identified risks. Figure-7(b): Result obtained from simulation identifying most critical risk impacting scope, duration and cost Muree Rawat gas pipeline project dentified impacting on scope, cost and duration of project [Figure 7 (a) and (b)]. Strategy for risk management is set ac cordingly. The following analysis and results was produced by the programme: 35 Sensitivity analysis Success rate of completion Critical risks affecting cost Critical risks affecting duration of project Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Critical activities. Most probable duration Most probable cost of the project Most probable date of completion of project. STEP 6: On the basis of critical risk identification by Monte Carlo simulation, risk reduction strategy is set, which may be risk transfer, mitigation, avoidance, distribution and etc.During construction process the impact of risk can be lowered by changing the schedule of construction for example 95% of probability of flood occurrence is in period from June to August. In flood, the area comes under water and may not be possible to continue the construction process. Therefore, schedule may be set in a way that ground related activities should be set accordingly to avoid the occurrence. STEP 7: The results or set methodol ogy for risk management must be periodically monitored and checked for improvement. Lesson learned and recommendation should be send to â€Å"Data Bank† which may be useful for risk analysis and management of another pipeline project of similar nature. organizational capacity for design, construction and operation. Organizational or technological risk like insufficient resource planning or project management, change in scope etc can be eliminated by improving the process or application of new technologies available in this field. New state of the art technologies are helpful in managing change at any stage of the project. Historical data of river flows shows that the flood has probability of 95% of occurrence between June and August. This risk can be minimized during construction phase by rearranging the construction schedule. Other risks like landslides are associated with floods, rain fall or earthquakes. Earthquake risk during construction phase depends on the length of ex ecution of project and only impact on the construction cost of the project. As the duration of the execution increases probability of occurrence of risk also increase.However, in operation phase this risk must be eliminated by practicing design based on earthquake/horizontal forces. †¢ †¢ 5. Conclusion and Recommendations †¢ Probability of risk occurrence â€Å"P† comes out to be the function of project duration â€Å"T† both during construction and operation phase. However Intensity of destruction or Impact is a function of enterprise internal and external environment. Three most critical tasks calculated by Risky Project are Excavation, Transportation of Material and Stringing of pipelines. The most critical risks come out to be change in economic parameters, Change in design and scope, earthquake and terrorism during construction and operation of gas pipelines.Considering all risks the probable values to project completion calculated by Risky project is 460 days however the base project duration is 390 days. Similarly the project cost without risks is 350,00,000 however, with risks it is 391,00,000. On the basis of that contingency budget of project can be formulated to cater the risk. The secondary risks like change in material prices, construction not finished in time or budget and design not in time can be reduced or transferred to the other party or organization by contract. However SNGPL is designing, constructing and operating gas pipelines so risk can be eliminated by strengthening the internal Acknowledgement Mr. Pervair, Senior General Manager and Engr.Waqar Ashraf, Deputy General Manager (Projects), SNGPL are acknowledged for their contribution and support in providing data and relevant material. †¢ REFERENCE [1] Economic Survey of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Chapter 15, Energy Sector of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. (2006), 219-225. [2] Annual Report; Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), Lahore, Pakist an (2006), 511. [3] Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline Pre-feasibility report by Hagler Bailly Pakistan. Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 111-119. [4] Syed Hassan Nawab; Proc. 3rd Pakistan oil & gas conference, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2007), 136-145 [5] Amberish K. D. ; A pipeline through Pakistan, Dehli, India (2004), 131-137. [6] John W. , Edward G. ; International Project Risk Assessment: Methods, Procedures, and Critical †¢ †¢ 36Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Factors (Center Construction Industry Studies, Report No. 31, The University of Texas at Austin) Austin, Texas. (2003), 41-49. [7] FIDIC  © Conditions of contract for construction. (Multilateral Development Bank Harmonized Edition). Geneva, Switzerland. (2005), 217-229. [8] Armbruster J. ; Research Journal, 83(1978) 8891. [9] Mahdi S. , Muhammad S. ; Proc. 1st International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (ICCE), Lahore, Pakistan, (2006), 177-182. [10] D'Appoloni a E. ; Proc. of 9th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering,Tokyo, Japan, 4(1979), 410-414. 11] PMBOK ® Guide; A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, 3rd Edition, PA, USA, (2004), 237-264. [12] Peter C. , Robert P. ; Proc. 2nd International Deepwater Pipeline Technology Conference. London, UK, (1999), 291-297. [13] Conditions of Contract for EPC/Turnkey Projects, Guidance for the preparation of the particular Conditions Forms of Tender, Contract Agreement and Dispute Adjudication Agreement, USA, (1999), 4-12. [14] Sher Muhammad Ch. ; Introduction to statistical theory, Ilmi Kitab Khana, Urdu Bazar, Lahore, Pakistan, 6th Ed, (1996), 361-370. [15] Susan R. P. ; Proc. Int. Conference on Risk Assessment and Policy Association meeting in Alexandria, Virginia, (1997), 245-255. [16] Brenda McCabe; Proc. Int.Conference on Simulation, Toronto, Canada, (2003), 15611565. [17] Jack R. , Meredith, Samuel J. , Mantel Jr. ; Project Management, 5th Ed, NJ, USA, (2002), 191105. [18] Wells Louis, Gleason Eric; Harvard Business Review Journal, 73(5)(1995) 44-54. [19] CPM 128: Project Management Boot Camp, (2006), 11. 1-11. 30. [20] www. intaver. com/accessed on 10th March, 2007 [21] Annual Flood Report; Ministry of Water and Power, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 1-5 also available online on http://www. pakistan. gov. pk/ministries/index. jsp ? MinID=24=291. [22] User’s Guide to RiskyProject Professional 1. 3, Intavar Institute Inc. , USA, (2006), 31-38. 37

Mining Rare Earth Metals Essay

I believe that Canada should be involved in the rare earth metals mining industry. Rare earth metals are an essential part of everyday modern life (and of growing importance). They are used from everything from cell phones to environmentally friendly technologies such as wind turbines and hybrid engines. The mining of these metals would provide many benefits to Canada. It makes great economic sense because right now China is a supply and demand crisis so they are exporting less metal every year. If Canada were to enter the mining not only would it create thousands of jobs in one area where unemployment is a little bit of a problem but we could also pick up the slack of Chinas export problem and make billions. Besides the obvious economic implications, I believe that mining these metals cold have serious political and environmental benefits for us. China uses dangerous chemical to melt the earth around it, which could potentially leave a lasting impression on the surrounding area and any vegetation that might grow there in the future. So if Canada were to mine these metals I think we would be more respectful of the landscape. In today’s society reducing your environmental footprint is huge and in terms of rare earth metals there are many ways in which we can reduce our own. It starts by properly recycling our reusable electronics so the metals can be extracted or re used. Other ways would be to buy used electronics and not get every new gadget that comew out so there is less of a demand for the mining of rare earth metals. Given the pros of mining and the fact that they outweigh the cons, I believe that Canada should be involved in rare earth metals mining.

Free Essays on Changing Teen Relationships Over Time

We live in a world today where everything is faster, more intense, more demanding, and more intimate. These items have combined to put tremendous pressure on relationships today and in some cases create serious problems. The relationships today are significantly more complicated and potentially more stressful than those of fifty years ago. In order to better understand the differences, we must compare the teenage relationships from the 1950s and today, to determine the cases. Terminology over the decades has changed in phrasing, as well as meaning. In the 1950s, â€Å"necking† was defined as â€Å"caresses above the neck,† while in today’s society, it is referred to as â€Å"making out.† Both terms refer to partners kissing and touching above the neck. More serious terms in the fifties were â€Å"petting† and â€Å"heavy petting† which were described as â€Å"caresses below the neck,† often closer to intercourse. Today, both kinds of â€Å"caresses† are referred to as â€Å"hooking up† (Sombat). â€Å"Hooking up† can always mean casual dating, kissing, or engaging in sexual activity with other people. Titles and places have also changed since the 1950s. For example, serious dating used to be referred as â€Å"going steady,† whereas in today’s terms it is referred to as â€Å"going out.† Both terms involve the titles of boyfriend and girlfriend but â€Å"going steady† usually meant the couple was on the path to marriage, whereas â€Å"going out† just means a serious relationship (Sombat). Although the terminology has changed, the meanings are often similar. Some sexual phrases today are not taken as seriously as they were in fifties, but that is how teenage relationships have evolved. Teen relationships are not taken as seriously as they were in the 1950s. When teenagers were dating in the 1950s, it was never acceptable for them to be alone in the house or in a bedroom. Today, it is an almost everyday occurrence that teenage... Free Essays on Changing Teen Relationships Over Time Free Essays on Changing Teen Relationships Over Time We live in a world today where everything is faster, more intense, more demanding, and more intimate. These items have combined to put tremendous pressure on relationships today and in some cases create serious problems. The relationships today are significantly more complicated and potentially more stressful than those of fifty years ago. In order to better understand the differences, we must compare the teenage relationships from the 1950s and today, to determine the cases. Terminology over the decades has changed in phrasing, as well as meaning. In the 1950s, â€Å"necking† was defined as â€Å"caresses above the neck,† while in today’s society, it is referred to as â€Å"making out.† Both terms refer to partners kissing and touching above the neck. More serious terms in the fifties were â€Å"petting† and â€Å"heavy petting† which were described as â€Å"caresses below the neck,† often closer to intercourse. Today, both kinds of â€Å"caresses† are referred to as â€Å"hooking up† (Sombat). â€Å"Hooking up† can always mean casual dating, kissing, or engaging in sexual activity with other people. Titles and places have also changed since the 1950s. For example, serious dating used to be referred as â€Å"going steady,† whereas in today’s terms it is referred to as â€Å"going out.† Both terms involve the titles of boyfriend and girlfriend but â€Å"going steady† usually meant the couple was on the path to marriage, whereas â€Å"going out† just means a serious relationship (Sombat). Although the terminology has changed, the meanings are often similar. Some sexual phrases today are not taken as seriously as they were in fifties, but that is how teenage relationships have evolved. Teen relationships are not taken as seriously as they were in the 1950s. When teenagers were dating in the 1950s, it was never acceptable for them to be alone in the house or in a bedroom. Today, it is an almost everyday occurrence that teenage...

Copia and Copiousness in Rhetoric

Copia and Copiousness in Rhetoric The rhetorical term copia refers to expansive richness and amplification as a stylistic goal. Also called  copiousness and abundances.  In Renaissance rhetoric, the figures of speech were recommended as ways to vary students means of expression and develop copia.  Copia (from the Latin for abundance) is the title of an influential rhetoric text published in 1512 by Dutch scholar Desiderius Erasmus. Pronunciation: KO-pee-ya Examples and Observations Because ancient rhetoricians believed that language was a powerful force for persuasion, they urged their students to develop copia in all parts of their art. Copia can be loosely translated from Latin to mean an abundant and ready supply of language- something appropriate to say or write whenever the occasion arises. Ancient teaching about rhetoric is everywhere infused with the notions of expansiveness, amplification, abundance.(Sharon Crowley and Debra Hawhee, Ancient Rhetorics for Modern Students. Pearson, 2004)Erasmus on Copia- Erasmus is one of the early enunciators of that sanest of all precepts about writing: write, write, and again write. He also recommends the exercise of keeping a commonplace book; of paraphrasing poetry into prose, and vice versa; of rendering the same subject in two or more styles; of proving a proposition along several different lines of argument; and of construing from Latin into Greek...The first book of De Copia showed the student how to use the sche mes and tropes (elocutio) for the purpose of variation; the second book instructed the student in the use of topics (inventio) for the same purpose...By way of illustrating copia, Erasmus in Chapter 33 of Book One presents 150 variations of the sentence Tuae literae me magnopere delectarunt [Your letter has pleased me greatly]...(Edward P.J. Corbett and Robert J. Connors, Classical Rhetoric for the Modern Student, 4th ed. Oxford Univ. Press, 1999)- If I am truly that peace so extolled by God and by men; if I am really the source, the nourishing mother, the preserver and the protector of all good things in which heaven and earth abound;... if nothing pure or holy, nothing that is agreeable to God or to men can be established on earth without my help; if, on the other hand, war is incontestably the essential cause of all the disasters which fall upon the universe and this plague withers at a glance everything that grows; if, because of war, all that grew and ripened in the course of t he ages suddenly collapses and is turned into ruins; if war tears down everything that is maintained at the cost of the most painful efforts; if it destroys things that were most firmly established; if it poisons everything that is holy and everything that is sweet; if, in short, war is abominable to the point of annihilating all virtue, all goodness in the hearts of men, and if nothing is more deadly for them, nothing more hateful to God than war- then, in the name of this immortal God I ask: who is capable of believing without great difficulty that those who instigate it, who barely possess the light of reason, whom one sees exerting themselves with such stubbornness, such fervor, such cunning, and at the cost of such effort and danger, to drive me away and pay so much for the overwhelming anxieties and the evils that result from war- who can believe that such persons are still truly men?(Erasmus, The Complaint of Peace, 1521)- In the right spirit of playfulness and experimentatio n, Erasmuss exercise can be both fun and instructive. Although Erasmus and his contemporaries clearly were delighted by language variation and exuberance (think of Shakespeares indulgence in his comedies), the idea was not simply to pile up more words. Rather copiousness was about providing options, building stylistic fluency that would allow writers to draw upon a large array of articulations, choosing the most desirable.(Steven Lynn, Rhetoric and Composition: An Introduction. Cambridge Univ. Press, 2010) Backlash Against CopiaThe latter part of the sixteenth century and the first part of the seventeenth witnessed a reaction against eloquence, specifically against Ciceronian style as a model for writers, both in Latin and in vernacular literature (Montaigne, for example)... The anti-Ciceronians distrusted eloquence as something speciously ornamental, therefore insincere, self-conscious, unsuited for expressing private or adventurous reflections or disclosures of the self... It was [Francis] Bacon, not inappropriately, who wrote the epitaph of copia in that famous passage of his Advancement for Learning (1605) where he describes the first distemper of learning when men study words and not matter....It is ironical that in later years Bacon came to dislike the excesses of Senecan style nearly as much as those of copie. It is likewise ironical that the man who deplored the former popularity of copia was, of all writers in his time, most responsive to the advice in De copia about collectin g notes. Bacons obsessive fondness in his writings for sententiae, aphorisms, maxims, formulae, apophthegms, his promptuary, and his habit of keeping commonplace books were a tribute to the methods taught by Erasmus and the other humanists. Bacon was more indebted to prescriptions for copia than he allowed, and his prose leaves little doubt that he was studious of words as well as matter.(Craig R. Thompson, Introduction to Collected Works of Erasmus: Literary and Educational Writings I. University of Toronto Press, 1978)

3 Problems of Nonparallel Interjections

3 Problems of Nonparallel Interjections 3 Problems of Nonparallel Interjections 3 Problems of Nonparallel Interjections By Mark Nichol In a post published recently, I discussed simple problems of parallelism in sentence construction. Here are three examples of more complex errors involving corresponding sentence elements. 1. â€Å"Low-interest rates have been one of the primary, if not the primary factor in extending the real estate boom in the United States.† The corresponding phrases in this sentence are neither parallel nor complete. First, the additional consideration (â€Å"if not the primary factor†) must be structured as an interjection, meaning that it has to be bracketed parenthetically by commas, em dashes, or parentheses. (Which method you choose depends on the emphasis you want to give the interjection: Parentheses minimize the interruption, commas are the default punctuation for separating an interrupting phrase from the main sentence, and em dashes call attention to the inserted phrase.) In this case, â€Å"if not the primary factor† must be set off from the rest of the sentence with punctuation before and after; any of the three punctuation forms is appropriate. However, there’s more work to be done. The key to correctly constructing a sentence with an interjection is that if the interjection is omitted, the sentence is still complete. But read this version of the sentence with the interjection omitted: â€Å"Low-interest rates have been one of the primary in extending the real estate boom in the United States.† Obviously, factors must be inserted after the first use of primary in additional to the inclusion of the singular form of the word in the interjection: â€Å"Low-interest rates have been one of the primary factors, if not the primary factor, in extending the real estate boom in the United States.† 2. â€Å"Talk of a name change has struck some political observers as not only a merely cosmetic, but also as a pointless gesture.† As with the previous example, this sentence lacks a correctly framed interjection â€Å"but also as a pointless† must be set off from the rest of the sentence: â€Å"Talk of a name change has struck some political observers as . . . a merely cosmetic gesture.† (The ellipsis marks the omission of â€Å"not only,† which as part of the â€Å"not only . . . but also† comparative device is technically a part of the interjection.) The corrected sentence should read, â€Å"Talk of a name change has struck some political observers as not only a merely cosmetic, but also a pointless, gesture.† (Note the omission of the second instance of as.) Better yet, convert the interjection to a sentence-ending tag: â€Å"Talk of a name change has struck some political observers as not only a merely cosmetic gesture but also a pointless one.† 3. â€Å"He could have, but he didn’t, press for a clear, bilateral agreement on immigration.† Use the interjection-omission test described above to analyze this sentence’s problem: Without the (correctly punctuated) interjection, the sentence erroneously reads â€Å"He could have press for a clear, bilateral agreement on immigration.† A hypercorrection featuring logical correspondence at the expense of readability is â€Å"He could have pressed, but he didn’t press, for a clear, bilateral agreement on immigration.† As with the previous example, the sentence is best repaired by moving the interjection to the end of the sentence: â€Å"He could have pressed for a clear, bilateral agreement on immigration, but he didn’t.† Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Grammar category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:Math or Maths?â€Å"As Well As† Does Not Mean â€Å"And†While vs. Whilst